The Big short

1782 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: back to BCA, the Big Short & timing Woodford's next gating

Sorry for the late bearcast, I enjoyed a long chat with Reuters (see Roger Lawson not all the deadwood press hates me!) on when Neil Woodford’s Income Focus Fund will be gated. It is a when not an if and I discuss what is going on under the surface. Then it is on to Pendragon (PDG) and BCA MarketPlace (BCA) which is more of a BIG SHORT - than ever. I look at Big Sofa (BST), Amphion (AMP) which looks like a zero and finally, in some detail, UK Oil & Gas (UKOG). Now back to the rising water levels at the Welsh Hovel.

1847 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: it is not just Julie Meyer skipping on buying a new vibrator

In this podcast I look at the woes of sex toys and lingerioe chain Ann Summers and what it says about the state of UK retail and commercial property. I look briefly at the lamentable coverage by analysts and the expense fiddling fourth estate of Purplebricks (PURP) and finally at the signs that The Big Short is finally about to come good in spades, I refer to BCA Marketplace (BCA). I start by suggesting, in the interests of transparency. that you have a butchers at the front page of the Daily Mail. If you enjoyed my Julie Meyer vibrator jokes how about you do the decent thing and go HERE

2017 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: is BCA still the big short? Yes and here is why

I start with reflections on a rather plump young lady not wearing a bra parking her truck in front of my makeshift studio here in Greece. Moving swiftly on, I have a go at Malcolm Stacey over this piece and at James Bowden over this piece. I stand with Chris "three brains" Bailey on the recruitment stocks. Then it is onto BCA Marketplace (BCA). is it still "The Big Short?" I discuss in light of news both from Pendragon (PDG) and from the USA yesterday. 

2229 days ago

BCA Marketplace and those share trades that show the stench of panic

BCA Marketplace (BCA) was written up as "The Big Short" in my major Autumn dossier at 221p HERE. The shares are now 149p. And the share trading by those connected with it of late stinks of panic suggesting that it is a big a short as ever.

2269 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast - an angry shareholder on the BMR Scandal and a share sale validating The Big Short

I am very excited by working through the most wonkish of data sets to show Channel 4 was serving up A grade fake news as it reported on the drought in SA last night. More on that HERE. I start with the BMR (BMR) scandal where i am an angry small shareholder. The problem is that this is not an isolated incident, I look at Telit (TCM), MySquar (MYSQ) and Sefton (SER) where crime really did pay.  Then I look at an Optibiotix (OPTI) share sale and indicate at what point i will, again, be buying. I look at a share sale in BCA Marketplace (BCA) and why that is such a massive red flag compounding the thesis explained in my major report of last Autumn, The Big Short.

2339 days ago

BCA Marketplace headline numbers look great but here is why it remains a stand out sell

Yesterday's interims from BCA Marketplace (BCA) dazzled investors and the shares bounced back to 217p - almost where they were before I published THE BIG SHORT. But if you do some number crunching...

2355 days ago

BCA Marketplace - the macro data out that reinforces the big short

Even supporters of BCA Marketplace (BCA) concede that it is massively operationally and financially geared to sales volumes in the second hand car market. And thus yesterday came the data that bulls such as Neil "Nomates" Woodford must have been dreading.

2360 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast - collapsing auto sales so when do house prices crash?

I start with a look at the collapse in auto sales prompted by statements from Lookers (LOOK) and Auto Trader (AUTO) but also a cracking piece on Zero Hedge HERE. The big short remains - of course - BCA Marketplace I then look at MySquar (MYSQ) and React (REAT), shares in which we, sadly, hold. Then if auto is collapsing why aren't house prices? They will. I look at a new survey on Buy to Let and the various trading statements last week, notably Countrywide (CWD). 

2375 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Is this peak blockchain insanity - the strange case of On Line up 350%

Shares in On Line (ONL) are - as I record - up c350%. Is this peak blockchain insanity or is Clem Chambers simply the greatest spoofer in the history of mankind? What happens next is the big question. Then I look at murky share dealings in Mkango Resources (MKA) by market abuser and serial fantasist Chris Oil. Does he not care about TR1 rules at all? Then it is onto Lombard Risk Management (LRM) where I have 2 more questions about its overdraft but a very big question about how the silky words of Phil "InterX" Crawford on July 19 tally with the utterly shite H1 results. Does Nomad Finncap of Telit (TCM) infamy care? I suspect it does not. I look again at BCA Marketplace (BCA)  - THE BIG SHORT - in light of recent macro data. It remains a stupendous short. I look at management greed and an impending placing to fund that at Arian Silver (AGQ) and then at the dire interims from System1 (SYS1) and profits alert from Attraqt (ATQT). It is the former which remains a stonking sell even after today's share price collapse. And I have a question or two for AIM dog Advanced Oncotherapy (AVO)

2385 days ago

The Big Short: BCA and its leasing obligation burden

In my opus magnus on BCA Marketplace (BCA), the Big Short, I highlighted in Red Flag 4 point 1 the operating leases with no break clause until 2031 and noted that adding these to the balance sheet would double the apparent debt burden.

2939 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 9 April - what I take from the Big Short

Malcolm Stacey wrote earlier about what he took from the Big Short - HERE. I took a rather different message as I explain in this podcast recorded with my father's help in Shipston.